🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K from Wagers Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended. One account, which became a member recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. But the odds had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the first hours of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the social media post was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a bet based on confidential knowledge," stated a financial reform advocate. Several of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Political Attention Emerges Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A new rule introduced on Monday would prevent federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have grown significantly in recent years, with participants able to predict everything from sports outcomes to political events. The industry faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."